Here’s a strange fact for you: there will be no bad hits, no tournaments, no free online poker, or anything else. This may seem like a rather silly statement about the nature of poker tournaments; after all, preflop, for example, is it not widely believed that A-K players should beat A-Q players? And is it not true that players who are all-in with 8-8 should win against callers with A-K? And isn’t it A-A players who have to win all the time?
The 100% faith that we have in these hands is not 100%.
First, let’s have an open poker tournament in which all preflop players will determine their preflop hands.
Consequently, A-K is defeated 2-2, right there, preflop. A-K defeats A-Q. And A-A beats everything.
Do you see how many calls there will be?
Callers will have to wait for premium hands before calling, and this will extend the Poker Domino tournament.
Bad times are some of the abnormalities present in a poker tournament to reduce it.
- Returning to 100% faith in A-K versus A-Q, our faith should not be 100%.
- This should be only 75% because A-K defeats A-Q the remaining 25% of the time.
- And with so many players all-in with A-K, an A-x caller should win 25% of the time.
- If 50 players in the tournament go all-in with A-K and 50 players call with Ace-lower, will not 1/4 of the 50 or about 13 players be knocked out?
In paired pockets against the A-K, it’s almost a coin.
- This can be solved roughly by merely throwing a real coin.
- Ultimately, pocket pairs win because of a small advantage.
- But this does not mean that 8-8 always wins over AK.
- If a win of 8-8 against AK is a favorite from 55 to 45 (or from 11 to 9), then almost as many players will win an all-in with a small pair against two overcards, as there were players who dropped out of the tournament in the same situation.
- Excluded players do not have to worry; these are the laws of probability that hang.
Of course, when a player wants to avoid bad hits, he will expect premium hands. But waiting for premium hands will drastically reduce the player’s stack due to blindness.
One final note: wrong rhythms are not only pre-flop but also post-flop.
- Suppose player X is 8-8, and player Y is 7-6 onboard 5-8-4-A.
- Player X dropped the set, but Player Y hit Street.
- If player Y goes all-in and X calls, victory Y is not yet guaranteed.
- X can still pair a full house or quadrangle board.
- And if X matches the board, we can call it a failure.